Tuesday, August 16, 2011

It's Official...

The 2011 NFL season is underway and Week 1 of the preseason is in the books. I have to hand it to the players; after dealing with the lockout and having a shortened offseason they didn't look like they missed much. Traded players looked like they were clearly still learning but had the ability to still be a part of plays and the rookies were quite impressive, especially the quarterbacks. Cam Newton, rookie quarterback for the Carolina Panthers and number 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft looked a bit shaky, going 7 for 13 for 134 yards and no scores. Andy Dalton, rookie quarterback for the Cincinnati Bengals and expected starter for the 2011 season looked consistent going 11 for 15, but a lot of those passes were underneath as he only threw for 69 total yards with an interception. 

The biggest surprise to me came from the rookie quarterback Ryan Mallett; third string quarterback for the New England Patriots. Playing the entire second half, Mallett completed 12 of his 19 passes while racking up 164 yards and a touchdown in his debut. Let's talk about bang for your buck. Mallett dropped into Belichick's lap this past NFL draft and came as a steal in the third round at the 74th overall pick. There's no denying that this kid was a stud in college playing for the Arkansas Razorbacks racking up stats like 16.3 and 14.5 yards per completion while maintaining a 55.8 and 64.7 completion percentage in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Much like Brady, Mallett is strong in the pocket and shows good tempo and command of the offense. He's a huge athlete (6' 7") and not so mobile (even though he did show some moves agains Jacksonville), which means he requires a strong offensive line. If Mallett can continue to perform this strong during the preseason, look for some trades to be offered to the Patriots of players that were drafted higher in recent drafts. 

The biggest effect that the 2011 NFL lockout will have on the preseason and first few weeks of the regular season will be injuries to players. It's only entering week 2 of the preseason and there are teams that don't even have a healthy running back (Houston Texans). Granted injuries during the preseason can be a good thing for a coach because it truly tests your reserves to find out just how deep your depth chart is. However, the starters are the ones that should be taking the reps in practice because they are the ones that will eventually be playing come the regular season. If coaches have to become so focused on finding players that can play for a preseason game, then they lose sight of preparing for the actual week 1. Just doing minimal research I have compiled a list of 20 starters from the 2010 season that are currently unable to play or practice due to injury. Tack on another 5 to the 20 if you include rookies from the 2011 draft class. 

After watching some of the first weeks features, I saw the effects of the new rules implemented by the NFL after the lockout, mainly just two; the new kickoff from the 35-yard line and the review of every scoring play. Let me summarize them for you in one word... SHIT. I felt like I was going to blow my brains out after every called touchdown. Specifically last night during the Houston Texans and New York Jets game. There was one perfect example string of plays that exposed just how stupid this rule is. 

Texans receiver caught a nice pass, tripped, and fell with possession of the ball into the end zone. Referee had a perfect view of the play and ruled it a touchdown. But with this new rule the play had to be reviewed upstairs by off-field officials. They found evidence that the player was down by contact before the ball crossed the plane into the endzone. So they then had to page the on-field official to review the play in the booth. After reviewing it there for a few minutes it was announced that the play was in fact not a touchdown and the ball was placed on the half yard line. Offense and defense set up their plays, Texans running back runs the ball into the endzone. Touchdown. Extra point followed. Commercial break after that. So there is rule one that I have a major issue with. 

Just a side note, another point to consider in regards to this review rule is that coaches no longer have to run the risk of throwing challenge flags on the goal line. The play gets reviewed for them and that challenge can be used on ball spots and complete catches come crunch time.

Rule two comes into effect directly after the return from commercial break. The new ruling for kickoffs states that teams are now required to kick of from the 35-yard line opposed to the 30-yard line.  This rule was put into effect to reduce injuries that occur during kick returns. Granted, it does make sense. Special teams players are often young, unexperienced, and always play to prove something. So stupid things are bound to happen. Now when kickers were place-kicking from the 30-yard line, it was easy for them to reach 4 to 5 yards deep in the endzone. Now move the ball up 5 yards. That easy kick is now reaching 9 to 10 yards deep. For those of you that don't know, an endzone is only 10 yards deep. In 2010, 16.4 percent of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. With this new rule look for that percentage to double. If you really want to get into the value of a touchback, read this article here and have your mind blown because I honestly did. A thought to consider for the mentality of a coach in this situation is bringing on a cheaper, not as strong kicker to take kickoffs. Think about a non-kicker taking the kickoff. There are plenty of utility players out there (ex. Ndamuking Suh and Ochocinco) who can get the ball down field and in play off the kick. 

Anywho continuing with my example. So Houston scored went to commercial and now for the kickoff. Boom you guessed it, TOUCHBACK. Play is dead offense and defense prepare to come out and my TV is back on a commercial. Return from commercial. So play that entire example out in your head and watch how much time it takes to process the entire scenerio. Then multiply it by 2. That's how long it takes in real life. I felt like at least 10 minutes had gone by. Is this what we are to expect for every close play by then endzone? I hope not. 

Thursday, August 4, 2011

The League

As soon as the NFL was unlocked you want to know what the first thought that crossed my mind was? Fantasy Football baby. Now don't get me wrong, I am still fairly new to the game (I've only been playing since '07ish) but when I'm in, I'm all in and want that title as league champion (which I was back to back my first two seasons). This year we decided to change things up a bit with a live draft a month before the first game of the season, have a 12 person league, and some deep rosters. A little risky but it's all we could manage for a time to get everyone together. 

A lot of people don't really understand how in-depth this type of game can get; all the angles to consider. You have to look at team schedules, past performances, projected stats, injury prone players, people coming back from season ending injuries; the list could go on forever. The biggest factor that I have found to consider is time. The lockout has only been over for around 2 weeks and players have been flying all over the map. These trades have crucial impact on individual players. The other time aspect to consider is time between end of lockout and week one. Training camps have taken a huge toll and whats taught to players normally is now crammed into a month's worth of work. Consider this; Donnovan McNabb was traded to the Minnesota Vikings very recently. Something that I would think about that would make a decision to draft him or not could be the timing between the offensive line and him. They have to get used to how a brand new quarterback calls plays, audibles, drops back, and the timing of his release. And they only have a month to do it; ontop of conditioning, individual workouts, and learning a playbook. That's how in depth fantasy football can get. I'm just beginning to realize that the people who are consistently good in multiple fantasy football leagues are pretty smart when it comes to sports. 

So this year I decided I need to really get into the pre-draft research because a live draft takes out a lot of insider resources, a.k.a. the internet and Adam Schefter, and separates the diehards from the wannabes. I've been reading magazines, doing mock drafts, analyzing picks and recognizing patterns, yet I still feel like I am completely hopeless. Why? Because there is a wildcard in every league. The one person that does the completely unexpected and just shits on your draft. Luckily I have a high draft pick so I have some guarantees. 

So I'll provide my readers with a little bit of insite from my brain with some sleepers, busts, top rookies, all that fun stuff. Hopefully it's useful.

NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: The addition of McNabb and the loss of Sidney Rice makes A.P. the best option on every down for the Vikings. Expect McNabb to rely heavily on the veteran running back.

Return to Fantasy Prime: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: He has a lot to prove after only playing 6 games last season due to injury. With Cam Newton most likely the future of this franchise, I think Williams will want to add his two cents and help get the team off the ground.

Biggest Bust: Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: So did anyone know who Peyton Hillis was before last season? I know I didn't. The Browns do not have a strong offense and now that opposing defenses know what he is capable of he will become their primary target.

Top Rookie: Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: Ronnie Brown is gone. Ricky Williams smokes a bunch of weed. That leaves a lot of work for Thomas to do and expect him to carry that load well.

Sleeper 1: Danny Woodhead, RB, Patriots: Woodhead solidified a spot amongst the tandem of Patriots running backs with his breakout season last year. He's small, quick on his feet, and strong enough to break a few tackles. 

Sleeper 2: Lee Evans, WR, Bills: You probably know him most for his wide open, game-winning, touchdown... dropped pass. He has a lot to prove still even though he is the first string wide receiver for the Bills.